Saturday, November 15, 2014

Xbox's Struggle In Japan



Over the years, I’ve been sort of perplexed by something: why has Microsoft historically struggled with the Japanese market? I noticed it a lot when I was studying in Japan last year. Whenever I would walk into a store, the video game shelf space would be dominated by Nintendo and Sony systems, with only a small area with Xbox products, if at all. I always attributed the lack of Microsoft products to a lack of effort on the part of the company, but it turns out that it’s much deeper than that.

In Japan, Nintendo and Sony reign supreme. Both have a demanding market presence, both have a long history of products that have sold well in the country and perhaps most importantly, both are Japanese companies. I’ve heard that people tend to favor products from their own country, but I haven’t considered it true, especially in a country where there are so many different types of people like America. In my case, I’ve historically taken a liking to Sony’s video game offerings. So while the idea that people identify with products from their own country is understandable, I don’t embrace it when it comes to what I like in video games.

Japan is a bit different though. It’s a homogenous country where 98% of the population is Japanese and historically they’ve been a nation that’s tried to keep to themselves and keep foreigners out. In a country where only 2% of the population is foreign, the word for foreigner, “gaikokujin,” (外国人) seems to be much more potent. Japanese tend to identify and endorse domestic products.

When considering why Microsoft hasn’t sold well, it’s also important to think about just how long Nintendo and Sony have been around in Japan. Nintendo came out with the Famicom (“family computer”) in 1983 and Sony came out with its first video game system, the PlayStation, in 1994. Microsoft’s first attempt at a home video game console, the Xbox, was introduced to the Japanese market in 2002.

With such a rich history with the likes of Nintendo, Sega and Sony, it was hard for Microsoft to win support from Japanese developers during the initial stages of development for the Xbox. It makes sense too. If you have a product that’s doing well in your country (from the Japanese perspective) and that’s the market you care the most about, then why would you manufacture products for another company? That could potentially alienate your collaborators and there’s no guarantee that the product would sell well. Profit was more easily assured on the existing systems. It was a huge gamble for Japanese devs and they went with the safe bet, sticking with the Japanese companies whose relationships they valued.

To put things simply, there are three monumental obstacles to the Xbox’s success in the country. First, there’s the competition. Sony and Nintendo have a dominant home-turf advantage. Second is context. It’s really hard to do well in a country where the substitutes are perceived to be better than your product. Lastly there’s perception. The perception of Xbox is that of a western gaming machine that’s being sold in the east. Japanese don’t feel as if there’s content there that was made for them (for the most part).

In the face of all that, Microsoft can’t ignore that market. To do so would be to give Nintendo and Sony free reign in controlling the Japanese video game market. I believe that the Redmond Washington-based company views their presence in the land of the rising sun as something that’s better there than not. In the transition to the current console generation, many people were saying that Microsoft should just skip the Japanese market where many believed it impossible to do well, but no matter how few units they sell, Microsoft will remain in Japan.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Holiday Dealz, PS4 vs. Xbox One



The holiday season is upon us and we all know what that means: massive discounts as retailers vie for our business. 

Microsoft has something to prove, and thus has come out the gate swinging in the form of a few notable exclusives, Forza Horizon 2 and Sunset Overdrive, as well as a wealth of deals for all, which I’ll detail in a moment. 

But first, let’s look at some sales figures. 
 
As you can see in the chart above, VGChartz has estimated that the PS4 has sold about 12.3 million units thus far in comparison to Xbox’s 6.1 units sold through to consumers. Worthy of note is the uptick in sales that the Wii U experienced in recent months, (according to IGN 610,000 units from July to September). The sales boost can likely be attributed by the pleasant surprise of Hyrule Warriors and the recent release of Mario Kart 8.

A few days ago Sony reported that they sold 3.3 million PS4 units in Q3, a boost to their 2.7 million units sold in Q2. They outperformed Microsoft which sold 2.4 million Xbox One units in Q3. 

All eyes are on the battle between Microsoft and Sony (but don’t count Nintendo out!). What’s the cause for the sales parity between the two consoles? I think it boils down to early pricing and messaging from Microsoft. The price of the Xbox One was announced at E3 during the Microsoft Press Conference last year. It was to retail for $500 and it came bundled with their voice/motion sensing device, the Kinect. Later that day, in the Sony Press Conference, Sony dealt a major blow by announcing that the PS4 would retail for $400, and revealed that its hardware was more powerful than the other offerings (with the exception of PC). 

The pricing strategists at Microsoft believed that people would be willing to pay the extra $100 because the system was positioned as the center-of-the-living-room entertainment system. Sony came out early and positioned the PlayStation 4 as a system designed for gamers, a similar value proposition to the previous generation of consoles. 

Microsoft stumbled out of the gate with a lot of mixed messaging; its executives weren’t in the loop about the product that they were selling and later fact-checking produced a lot of backlash from the community. The system also came out two weeks later than its competitor, the PS4 and in limited territories (Japan was left out and is seen as a lost cause for Microsoft). The system was losing by such a margin that half a year later, Microsoft announced that it was uncoupling the Kinect from the system and matching the price of the PlayStaion 4 at the $400. 

A lot has happened since then, but Microsoft is positioning itself quite well for this holiday season. The Microsoft store has the Xbox One discounted by $50 and the promotion is running from November 2 to January 3. Not only that, they have an array of bundles including Xbox One Assassin’s Creed Unity bundle ($350), Sunset Overdrive bundle ($425), COD Advanced Warfare bundle ($449). One of the more interesting promotions Microsoft is doing is offering the Xbox One for $250 when you trade it in for a working Xbox 360 or PS3. 

On the other side of the Microsoft bundles, Sony isn’t really offering any. The only thing that I’ve seen that was a bargain was a promotion on Ebay that ran for about a week that had the PS4 for $350.

Should Sony lower their prices to compete with Microsoft? The short answer is no. Why? Because right now it doesn’t have to. It’s enjoying a comfortable lead in this iteration of the console race. People are buying PS4s. They aren’t buying as many Xbox Ones and that’s why Microsoft is lowering its prices: to attract and grow its install base. Sony is riding the wave this holiday season and they don’t need to lower prices. In fact, lowering prices would hurt their current profit margins. Sony is already making a profit per unit sold with the PS4, a point that didn’t come about till much later in the history of its predecessors. 

I think that this holiday season bodes well for Microsoft. A strong lineup of exclusives for this season as well as a reduction in the price of the console will go a really long way to boost the sales of the console. But let’s keep things in perspective: both consoles are doing extremely well historically, outpacing their predecessors. Microsoft will definitely close the gap some this holiday season. By how much remains to be seen. 

I really want to see Sony discount their system (and also give me a GTA V bundle), not only because it would mean a sweet deal for me, but perhaps more importantly because I would love to see Microsoft’s reaction. Who knows, I might even consider buying an Xbox One. 

I’m also really interested to see what Sony’s ‘PlayStation Experience’ event in December has lined up. My thinking is that they will try to use the December PlayStation event to generate buzz around the PS4 and the only price drops we’ll see will come with limited supply. I would love to see surprises at the event next month, but this is likely just a piece of community outreach (spending some of that dough that the PS4 has help them make) so I doubt we’ll see any bombshell announcements. 

The holiday season is a win for all consumers. Let the fun begin!

Monday, September 1, 2014

Sony Computer Entertainment Japan Press Conference 2014

So I was browsing through a few stories today and noticed that SCEJ held a press conference today, well yesterday in Japan. I took to the internet to find the press conference and found the video on the Playstation Japan YouTube page. The conference, just under 2 hours long, concentrated on the PS4 as well as the Playstation Vita, and contained showings from numerous producers and developers including a few surprise announcements. I won't go over everything, but I'm definitely covering things that piqued my interest.

I had no idea this happened, but Atsushi Morita, who used to be vice president of administration and control of Sony, was promoted to President of SCEJ effective today (9/1/14). He seemed humble and a little nervous as he took the stage a number of times throughout the conference.

Some statistics to get things started. 
  • As of last month, PS4 has sold 10 million units worldwide making it the fastest selling console to date
  • between February and August, PS3/PS4 sales accounted for 78% of  systems sold in Japan
  • disc-based versions of Knack, Killzone: Shadow Fall, Infamous Second Son, and the Last of Us Remastered edition have sold a combined 10 million units worldwide in the 9 months since the system released in the West
 Hardware announcements.

 The Vita will be getting another color this year. Entitled 'Light Pink/White', the model will retail for  18,980 yen (about $182) and will be released November 13th of this year.

The upcoming MMO-like shooter Destiny will be getting a special PS4 Glacier White bundle to be released October 11th (so a little over a month after the game comes out).

 There's also going to be a Dragon Quest Metal Slime PS4, set to release next year.

UI/Service Announcements
The most notable feature of software update 2.0 is the theme support, a long-awaited feature to the system. Themes will have PS4 and PS Vita support. It's about time theme support got added!
Sony also talked about a program called UMD Passport. Unfortunately they didn't go too much into specifics, but it allows users access to over 250 titles that were previously only on the Playstation Portable. Vita is also getting a software update, but Sony didn't detail any big features beyond theme support.

Games
Ah. At last, we've arrived at the thing that everyone cares about. I will begin with my favorite game announcement. In a teaser trailer, famed developer Atlus announced that the previously PS3-only Persona 5 is in development for the PS4 and is slated for simultaneous release with the PS3 version. Persona 5 is one of the only reasons I'm still holding on to my PS3 (that and KH 2.5), but with this announcement, I'm happy to report that I can enjoy the next installment in the Persona series on Playstation 4.

Another big announcement was about a new title in the Y's series, set to come to Playstation 4 as well as Playstation Vita next year. I will definitely be picking this up! Another cool-looking game was Yakuza Zero, Sega's next game in the Yakuza series. In this game, you'll be playing as younger versions of Kazuma Kiryu and Goro Majima, protagonists from earlier Yakuza games.

Bandai Namco announced a new Dragonball game titled Dragonball Xenoverse, which looks like it could be more than your traditional fighting game.

Morpheus
Project Morpheus will have a playable demo at TGS this year. The title, called 'Summer Lesson' lets players study in a room with a high school girl during the dog days of summer. I wasn't exactly impressed with what I saw with the title but I'm sure it'll get some people 'excited'. I really hope that Sony takes its time developing this peripheral. I don't want to see something underdeveloped hit the market. If it takes 6 years to get something great developed then so be it. I can wait 6 years. I have plenty of games to keep me busy.

Some Takeaways
Sony really appears to be hitting its stride. They even scheduled another press conference for the 17th, ahead of the Tokyo Game Show (I really wish I could go this year). You say this with every big conference, but this is a really big moment for them. They have a new console that is selling quite well and lots of developers are getting on board with the PS4. TGS is very much a Sony/Nintendo-focused event and it's important that they keep this momentum up.

The last trailer shown at the press conference yesterday was of a new Square Enix, Koei Tecmo collaboration Dragon Quest game to be released in the spring of 2015. It features presumably Dynasty Warriors-like combat and is set in the Dragon Quest universe. It's been almost 10 years since Dragon Quest has been on Playstation and to be honest, I can't say that I'm really excited about this game announcement because I would much rather prefer a traditional installment to the franchise.

The Playstation Vita seems to be selling well in Japan. Last week I wrote about a little bit about the Vita's recent marketing strategy shift in the west. However, much to my surprise, the Vita was actually in the spotlight for much of the press conference (which was directed at the Japanese market). Sony seems to be marching to a different tune with Vita marketing in Japan. Maybe Sony doesn't think that a handheld can be successfully marketed in the west. Who knows.

I'm looking forward to this year's Tokyo Game Show. I would expect to see a trailer for Kingdom Hearts 3 and maybe even Final Fantasy XV. Definitely count on announcements from Hideo Kojima about Metal Gear Solid V.

That's all for now. Take care folks.

Friday, August 29, 2014

PS Vita: State of Decline?

Since its sale began almost two and a half years ago, the Playstation Vita has struggled to emulate the success of its predecessor, the Playstation Portable. Evidenced by the lack of coverage during the Sony E3 and Gamescom conferences, it seems that Sony has decided to abandon efforts to market the Vita entirely and instead focus on the already profitable that is the Playstation 4.

Indeed, when asked in a recent interview by Eurogamer about the lack of media coverage of the struggling Vita from Sony, President of Sony's Worldwide Studios, Shuhei Yoshida,  remarked, "PS Vita gamers are pretty core, dedicated gamers. They seek information, so we trust them to find out about the games coming out on PS Vita."

It's easy to extrapolate from this quote that the overall strategy and goals of the Vita have changed.

In the rest of this write-up, I will be exploring the context, that is the landscape that includes the Vita.

Precursor: The Playstation Portable

In order to understand the marketing strategy in regards to the PS Vita, it's important to consider the life of its predecessor, the PSP. The Playstation Portable was first unveiled in May of 2004. It was released later that year in Japan and in other territories early 2005. Despite having a higher price point than its main rival, the Nintendo DS, the system performed fairly well in sales during the first few months, and indeed the first years of its launch, likely because of its positive public reception and software offerings.

The PSP shipped nearly 25 million units by the end of 2006. It had a large install base with a number of titles from first-party studios like Naughty Dog and Guerrilla Games (maker of PSP version of Killzone).

Once the PS3 launched in late 2006, Sony had new challenges. For one, they had to try to promote projects on 3 different platforms (PS2, PS3 and PSP). On the other hand, blockbuster titles were still being made for the PS2 and the tech giant had to commit much of its resources to its new, but struggling product, the PS3.

The PSP was a success, especially if you compare it to the Vita along the same points in time. After over two and a half years since its release, the PS Vita has sold 8.7 million units worldwide. During a similar time frame, the PSP moved over 10 million units in the United States alone.

Why is the Vita struggling?

There's no one reason that can explain why the Vita is struggling. It's a complex problem with a host of different factors. Here are a few things to consider.

The rise of mobile gaming. There are a plethora of games that can be played for free or at a low cost on smartphones and tablets, not to mention that the devices are dedicated to more things than just playing video games.

Cost. If you spend let's say $200 on a PS Vita, you also have to buy the games and although there are games that will only cost you $2.50 on the store, the majority of content that's been designed specifically for the Playstation Vita is going to come at a more expensive premium.

Reception. I often see people comment online that there is a lack of content for the PS Vita, which is completely false. The PS Vita has an abundance of content, but what it lacks is a strong media presence. I think that Sony doesn't believe it has the right titles to market to a mass audience and they've perhaps refrained from marketing specifically for the Vita because of it.

Landscape. When the PSP released in America in 2005, Sony was high on its success of the Playstation 2. The good feelings of the PS2 era definitely had an effect on the release and reception of the PSP, but I would say that the difficulty of the PS3 launch sapped away at some of the sentiment and people returned to the PS2. When the Vita released in 2012 the market was very different. It was saturated with mobile devices and there wasn't an assured sense that content produced on the device could be profitable. 
 
Technology. Nowadays, our devices have to be all-in-one or else they're really not worth having. Think about it. If you had separate devices for calling, texting, Skyping, watching videos, taking notes, catching up on the news and so on, you'd have a million devices. Now I wish that Sony could just make a console that could just play video games, but in a world of variety and where all-in-one is the norm, that just isn't possible. Nintendo might have a few things to say about that statement, but I stick by it. Sony can't run the risk of making a platform that Just plays games because it's too risky.

Personally, I like the PS Vita. It's the first system that I actually pre-ordered. The Vita is the system for me because, although I do like keeping up with newer games, I want to play all of the games that I didn't play growing up like Chrono Trigger, Xenogears, and Valkyria Chronicles 2.

I'm not sure what this turn in Sony's strategy means for the PS Vita and for the future of Sony handhelds. Do they have something else in the works? Are they using some of the PS4 profits to develop a better handheld? Or are they stepping out of the handheld business and putting their efforts into strengthening the PS4 and Project Morpheus?

One thing I think is for sure. The Vita, which never really got off to a good start, is on the decline.

Monday, August 18, 2014

Sony's 'Share Play' -- Software Seller or Bad Business Decision?

Sony's Gamescom press conference was held last weekend and while there were no bombshell game announcements, there were more than a few interesting tidbits.

10 million PS4s sold thus far.

That number represents the units sold through to consumers, not shipped to retailers. That's a solid figure considering the console has only been on sale for 9 months. It also helps to bear in mind that in the previous generation of consoles, the PS3 and Xbox 360, sold roughly 5.5 million units each in their first year. Microsoft should also be pleased as the Xbox One has already outsold its predecessor with 3 months left before the one year mark.

The news that caught my eye was an announcement by Jim Ryan, President and CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment Europe. In system update 2.0, Sony is bringing long-awaited features to the PS4 like the ability to connect with real-world friends based on online usernames as well as to upload footage directly to YouTube. Up till now, players wishing to upload content had to store the videos externally and post them later or upload them to Facebook, limiting the options of gamers whose main outlet for sharing and interacting with their community is YouTube.

Perhaps the most interesting announcement of update 2.0 is 'Share Play.' This feature, a 'virtual couch' according to the EU Playstation blog, will allow you to invite another player to join in on your gaming session, even if the other player doesn't own a copy of the game. Also a part of this feature is the ability to let another player take over your controller, seemingly essential for those difficult sections of a game.

There are still plenty of unknowns about the feature however. Sony has said that the feature is enabled by default on all PS4 games and it is up to the developers to turn the feature off. One question I have is how many developers will elect to turn this feature off. About ten minutes before the 2.0 announcement, Alex Hutchinson, Creative Director of Ubisoft's Far Cry 4, showed off a demo of the game. Following the demo he announced that each copy of the game would include a limited number virtual 'keys' that would allow players the ability to invite their friends to join their game for 2 hours.

It seems that the Sony's system update 2.0 and Far Cry 4's virtual key concept are at odds. This likely stems from a lack of communication between Sony and Ubisoft. I imagine that Sony would wanted to keep the details of their system update private as give it shock value when they announced it last week. I suppose the real question from this incident is whether or not Ubisoft will choose to keep the virtual key concept or abandon it by the time of the game's release.

Another key question in my mind is how Share Play will work in general. If I join a player in-game, I'm curious as to whether I'm sharing player 1's identity as a guest or if I'm playing on my account and simply joining a friend in-game? Furthermore, if it happens that case 2 is true, does the game save my progress, or will it be erased every time I quit my session? Saved progress sort of important to me for games where character progression is important like Destiny or Call of Duty. I would really love to be able to join a friend online, see if I like the game, have the game save my progress, and then have the ability to pick up where I left off if I end up getting the game.

Unfortunately, it would mean that game companies would have to set aside extra server space for people who may never end up actually buying the game which would negatively impact game sales. I could also envision a problem with the trophy (achievement) system. Specifically, if I have a join a friend's game with my unique account, will I be able to earn trophies? The amount of trophies could explode if that were the case, simply by being present in a friend's game. While it would be nice to think that data storage from joined Share Play sessions could happen, chances are it likely won't.

Here's what I imagine the system will be designed like.

Share Play will allow players the opportunity to join a friend's gaming session. When they join, they will be listed as a guest, duplicating the player 1's identity and essentially restricting the amount of content that the guest could access. All data of the guest is deleted once the session ends. Achievements can only be earned by player 1 (otherwise you could hypothetically earn achievements twice as fast).

In a massively-multiplayer online (MMO) game where a character's class presumably impacts the way the game plays, I could see my proposed system being a software seller. Share Play would give the players access to the content that their friend has unlocked, but in order to create a unique experience, that person would have to get the games for themselves. And that is where I think Share Play is ultimately aiming for. It will give people a taste of a game that they will hopefully end up buying.

All in all, I think that Sony's heart is in the right place. Maybe Sony hopes that money will be made through Share Play, and that's motivating their decision to include the feature, but I'd like to think that they have the best of intentions: bringing people together through games.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Welcome to Wayne's World of Gaming

Welcome to Wayne's World of Gaming, your shoe into the world of video games and my forum for talking about some of my favorite games and the video game industry. I'm really excited to be starting this and hope you'll join me on this journey.

My hope is that by sharing my thoughts about video games, I can not only come to a greater understanding about videos games, but also be a part of the gaming community and maybe even inspire people who don't game to try them out.

I've been in love with video games for as long as I can remember. What I have always been amazed about is the power of a video game to pluck you from reality, inject you into another space, and allow you to immerse yourself in a unique world. The interactive experience of video games gives us the means to manipulate a game's virtual reality and those experiences often influence our perception and handling of reality.

For example, I saw firsthand the effects of the introduction of a new product on the price of its component parts in the massively-multiplayer online (MMO) game Guild Wars 2. An update introduced a new backpack into the game. One of the supplies needed to manufacture the new accessory could be found while collecting wood. Rather than gather the necessary supplies independently, an activity that could easily take tens of hours, players instead rush to buy one of the supplies, the foxfire cluster, from the in-game trading post, a forum that gives players the opportunity to buy and sell commodities that they have acquired. The cluster, which used to be sold for about 1 gold piece, dropped down to 80 silver pieces because people kept undercutting the price of their competitors (80 silver = 1 gold for reference). Money can be fairly hard to come by early on in Guild Wars 2 and so what was once an easily lucrative method of earning money became less profitable in only a span of a few days. Update: the price has fallen even further to about 70 silver pieces per cluster.

With the recent technology boom of the past few decades, video games have risen to the forefront, gaining mainstream recognition with examples like the rise of E-sports, and popular franchises like the Call of Duty series as well as games like Angry Birds and Candy Crush. Video games have exploded in popularity and will only come to play a greater role in our lives as time goes on.

I'm excited to start writing. My first topic will be Sony's new 'Share Play' PS4 feature! Check back soon.